Thursday, March 12, 2015

Time To Think Globally?

As a tactical manager there is no reason why you need to invest globally.  The whole point of being tactical is making as much money as possible and avoiding the large loss.  If you can do that in US Stocks then why bother complicating things?  However, if in the future there will be more opportunity in the making as much money as possible part internationally then I can't ignore that.  Below is a chart of the current CAPE ratios of markets around the world.  The US currently has the highest valuation.  The CAPE is an awful timing tool as markets can stay over and undervalued for a long time.  Markets that are undervalued are also undervalued for a reason---Russia doesn't have a CAPE of 4.62 because investors haven't discovered it yet.  However, the price you buy things at matters, if you are buying a market at high prices then your future returns will probably be lower than markets you are buying at lower prices.   We are working on a global strategy that we might ultimately want to launch as a global alternative to TUTT.

As of Date Market Current CAPE Median CAPE
Dec-14 Russia 4.62 7.4
Dec-14 Brazil 9.13 16.4
Dec-14 Italy 9.22 22
Dec-14 Poland 10.38 14.6
Dec-14 Spain 11.59 15.6
Dec-14 Turkey 11.72 13.4
Dec-14 UK 12.04 14.7
Dec-14 South Korea 12.19 16.6
Dec-14 France 13.81 19.3
Dec-14 China 14.04 18.2
Dec-14 Australia 15.68 16.4
Dec-14 Germany 16.6 17.8
Dec-14 Hong Kong 17.84 18.1
Dec-14 Thailand 17.98 20.5
Dec-14 Malaysia 18.14 21.6
Dec-14 Canada 18.79 19.1
Dec-14 Taiwan 19.29 19
Dec-14 Sweden 19.62 20.5
Dec-14 India 19.75 23
Dec-14 Indonesia 20.33 24.2
Dec-14 South Africa 20.39 18.8
Dec-14 Mexico 21.11 23.7
Dec-14 Switzerland 22.87 19.5
Dec-14 Japan 24.89 38
Dec-14 US (Large) 27.1 15.9

Source:  Research Affiliates LLC

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