Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Outlook for 2014

As we get closer to the new year, my inbox is starting to get flooded with different market outlooks for 2014.  Because of this I thought I would chime in with my own outlook:

1. Most of the outlooks that come out will be completely wrong so I will delete all of them immediately except for the ones that come with funny comics.

2. One or two will be right, not because the authors have any special insight, but for the same reason a broken clock is right twice a day.   With enough people making predictions, statistically speaking, one or two will guess right.

3. The one or two who guessed right will be paraded in front of the financial media as great experts.  The media will also probably ignore the fact that they probably guessed wrong every other year.

4. The US market will probably fall somewhere between up 35% and down 35%

5. It will be no easier to predict what the market will do (impossible) in 2014 than it is any other year.

6. Bonds will either be up or down

7. Markets will continue to move in recognizable trends and counter trends

8. Instead of trying to predict what the market is going to do investors will be better of investing with these trends and counter trends.

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