Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Interesting Short Term Opportunity in Long Term Treasuries

I am not a trader or market timer, but if I was I might be looking at long term Treasuries right now for the following reasons:

1. Rates have backed up quite a bit as money has shifted out of bonds and into stocks based on the stock market rally and easing fears of a global meltdown.  Over the longer term we all know that rates at this level are probably unsustainable but in the short term we may be a little oversold.

2. Everyone and their mother expects a correction in stocks but they are all afraid to sell or go short because if stocks continue to rally they might miss it.  A safer bet could be taking a position in Treasuries, which would probably rally in the face of any major stock market correction, and if point 1 is correct, at least over the short term there is not a ton of risk to the downside in that trade.

We do have a small position in long term Treasuries in our Fixed Income models based on short term countertrends.