Saw this in the WSJ this morning. I do not argue that commodities are in a downtrend right now, what we need to be careful of is how we define a trend. The article talks about the uptrend that commodities have been in since 1999, which they have been, but a lot has happened between the lines. Fortunes could have been made or lost based on what happened and how you were positioned during this 10yr+ uptrend. We used to be able to define trends in terms of decades but these days, with increased volatility, we need to define them in terms of weeks and days.