Monday, May 14, 2012

A Rare Speed Bump in Commodities' Long Run

Saw this in the WSJ this morning.  I do not argue that commodities are in a downtrend right now, what we need to be careful of is how we define a trend.  The article talks about the uptrend that commodities have been in since 1999, which they have been, but a lot has happened between the lines.  Fortunes could have been made or lost based on what happened and how you were positioned during this 10yr+ uptrend.  We used to be able to define trends in terms of decades but these days, with increased volatility, we need to define them in terms of weeks and days. 

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