Monday, March 19, 2012

Head For The Hills?

This from the Wall Street Journal Today:

Head for the hills—at least if you put much stock in the dark art of technical analysis. Three influential market-timers believe the end is nigh for the stock-market rally.

Joe Granville, who single-handedly sparked a large drop in the Dow industrials in 1981 with his "sell everything" warning, sees a potential drop to 8,000 in the Dow this year. Granted, his calls since that big one have been a bit more miss than hit.

Elliott Wave theorist Robert Prechter, also known for incredible prescience but premature bearishness, is even more pessimistic, seeing a drop below 2009 lows.

Last but not least is Charles Nenner, who advised Goldman Sachs for years and now provides services privately to hedge funds. Some of his recent calls have been eerily accurate, and his coming ones are the most specific. He advises selling stocks after the S&P 500 hits 1,449 or by April 19, whichever comes first. If stocks then fail to break back above that level, it would confirm a multiyear bear market with the Dow eventually hitting 5,000.

Predictions make for great fun but nobody can predict the market.  Sometimes it appears they can as you have a 50/50 chance of getting it right, the market will either be up or it will be down.  Instead us trying to predict where the market is going  investors would be better served just staying in harmony with market trends.

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