Saturday, January 29, 2011

States Plead to Small Investors: 'Buy Bonds'

WSJ Article

The "smart money" is leaving the market so states are now trying to attract retail investors, I guess they are the "dumb money".

Friday, January 28, 2011

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

IRS Rules Renew Interest in Cash Balance Plans

IRS Rules Renew Interest In Cash Balance Plans

Still don't understand why these have not caught on for small business owners. For anyone who is 45+, with less than 25ish employees and wants to tax defer a lot of money a cash balance plan can be a real no brainer.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Rebalancing Your Portfolio

Quoted in a blog for Reuters, Rebalancing Your Portfolio: Is it Time? They misquoted me a bit but the basic idea is that you should only rebalance your portfolio when the market dynamics change, not based on some arbitrary date.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Monday, January 3, 2011

How To Beat the Market? Only Stay a Day at a Time

How to Beat the Market? Only Stay a Day at a Time

Interesting that CNBC.com would publish an article that there could be a mechanical system that would have beaten the market. Markets are not rational or random. There are seasonal trends like the first day of the month that can be capitalized upon. While holding for just one day a month might be emotionally difficult an investor could use something like this as a part of a larger system.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Looking Forward With Yesterday's Action

Interesting article in this month's Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities. The author, Anthony Trongone, examined the next three days of price action in the S&P 500 SPDRs after upmoves and downmoves. While the author only used a short period of time in his analysis it was still very interesting. What many people might think is that after an upmove of 2% or more in the S&P 500 the market is in rally mode and is likely to rally over the next three days. After a down move of 2% or more, people might assume the market is in a decline and would go down the next three days. The analysis showed the opposite, on average the S&P 500 made money the next three days after a large decline and lost money the next three days after a large up move.

This goes along with a lot of our thinking on using counter trend analysis to profit from overbought and oversold conditions in the stock markets.