Monday, August 29, 2011

The Right Way to Create a "Black Swan" Strategy

How to make a black-swan tactic fly
This is not the right way.

Buying out of the money puts costs you money until the market goes down, if you hit a period like 1982-99 that stinks. The right way is to create a basket of "safe haven" assets like gold, Swiss Franc, Treasuries, etc. You can also put in some stock fund or ETFs. Then trade the basket using a trend following approach. This will have you in safe haven assets at some point during a downturn and in the stock stuff in a sustained up trend in stocks. It probably will not make a killing in a down year but it should protect assets and it can make money during up years.

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